Why is Lewis Hamilton not winning in F1?

Fielding questions from #teamLH, and it's finally race week; Baku style.

I can feel the quiet, calm energy coming over me– similar to the first snowflake of winter.

My new, social boxing partner declares they have a question for me. Immediately a flash flood of thoughts hits me. Surely they want to pry into my private life. Why aren’t you married? Why don’t you have kids? What do you do?

My mind processes possible questions and computes rebuttals faster than GPT3.

Getting those answers through my mouth is another story.

Typically an overthinker, I catalog & analyze the source of the question. How long have I known them? Do they deserve the real answer? Why do they need to know? How many people can hear my answer?

Rebuttals are cued up, but my brain is wondering if diversion or even lack of acknowledgment is the best approach.

Why am I this way?

This calculated conversationist when underneath, the truth couldn’t be more upside down.

Am I bound to trip up on conversation regret? Dare the words leave my mouth and I can’t pull them back.

Do I default to a surface response bypassing a good moment for vulnerability and cold truth?

Surely this person doesn’t want to hear you ramble on about your personal scoreboard of past relationships?

“So you're an F1 fan, can you tell me why Lewis Hamilton not winning anymore?” says my new friend.

My face lights up with a big smirk. Holy moly, this a question I can answer with imputative truth, on command.

Well, it starts with a poorly designed car and ends with #teamLH losing their grasp on reality, I say.

Let’s break down some of the basics:

First, Mercedes is paying the price of chasing peak downforce.

F1 teams have strategic latitude in building & developing their cars. Mercedes attempted, with last year’s new regulations, to run the car as low to the ground as possible. The result was severe bouncing or porpoising that canceled out any speed increase. This year, the team has gone too far in the other direction, chasing downforce with the car’s ride height up as high up as possible.

Basically, they have hit an aerodynamic performance ceiling in both directions – which is what has prompted the ‘concept’ shift they are currently chasing. The team has even shifted senior personnel to address the glaring issues by bringing back their old designer, James Allison.

Secondly, to simplify things further, the F1 grid falls into three concept groups— the Red Bull-style downwash solution, the Ferrari inwash solution, and the Mercedes Zeropod. Turns out the downwash solution is the best performer with superior aerodynamic characteristics.

To help, look at the visual example below of what Mercedes is fighting versus Red Bull; notice how the air isn’t moving around the tire, under hard braking like the Red Bull. Sidepods move air around the rear of the car. They are a vital component of an open-wheel design and have been for decades. Why Mike Elliott ran with the Zeropod concept, and Toto Wolf signed off, are the questions Mercedes fans should be asking. Perhaps that is why Mike is no longer in charge of the concept.

Thirdly, under the previous regulations, Hamilton enjoyed a car that exhibited unrelenting dominance. A big piece of this was his comfort in pushing the car to its maximum limits. If a driver doesn’t feel at home in the driver’s seat or feels something is off with the balance, they are going to struggle.

Hamilton feels he is sitting too far forward in the car—the distance is only 22 centimeters forward of the old car. Hamilton can’t “feel” the rear of the car like he should giving him less confidence coming out of corners. Meanwhile, his teammate, George Russell, enjoys the seat positioning and is able to outperform Hamilton in qualifying and races. Any seat change will change the car’s center of gravity resulting in further changes in the handling, so it’s not a quick fix for the team, such as moving the seat back.

Fans think Mercedes suck, but they are only underperforming by the standards they set during the previous regulations, and this is exactly why the FIA changes the regulations. It creates a situation where cars & teams’ performance can change seemingly overnight. Personally, I think the fans just lost their grasp on reality.

Mercedes dominated the field from 2014 to 2020 until one another team, Red Bull, was able to catch up in 2021 and contend for the title. Like all dominant teams, past & present F1, they had a superior car; your job gets easier as a race car driver when you have the best equipment on the grid. Hamilton enjoyed this with a power unit, or engine, that was far superior.

In the first few years of the old regulations, Mercedes cars were pulling away from the competition by seconds, not tenths, and winning by enormous margins. Sound familiar?

This occurred for a few years until Red Bull finally found a power unit that worked well with their chassis design and didn’t blow up.

Silver Arrows fans can be mad, but the team has fallen back to reality as they no longer have the upper hand, and the fans need to follow.

It doesn’t mean Hamilton has lost it, or even given up, but he and the entire team will have to work harder to compete and win.

Mercedes will catch up to Red Bull. They have the talent, deep resources, and great leadership, but it will take time.

Did this help answer your question?

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Recess, or spring break for F1 is over and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is finally here. Along with it is the first sprint race of the 2023 season, and new rules to go with it.

So what will we see?

First, new acronyms, such as Saturday’s “shootout” qualifying sessions will be called SQ1, SQ2, and SQ3. The shootout will be a shorter session than traditional qualifying, with SQ1 set to run for 12 minutes, SQ2 for 10 minutes, and SQ3 for 8 minutes. New tires are mandatory for each phase, with Mediums only for SQ1 and SQ2, and Softs for SQ3.

So the amount of time in each qualifying segment is reduced; less time to get in a fast lap. More importantly, drivers can only use specific tires for each session. This effectively means that there is no opportunity for drivers to get a “banker” lap on an old set early on. Plus, if they mess up their qualifying effort, there won’t be a second chance to go on fresh rubber and make amends; any spin or lock-up under braking could be detrimental.

Parc Fermé is still as strict as ever, and Saturday has no impact for Sunday.

The new format changes are enshrined in the F1 Sporting Regulations, and the process of making tweaks can be quite long-winded if it is found something is not quite right. Even minor tweaks need approval of the F1 Commission, and then ratification by the FIA’s World Motor Sport Council.

Up until 1 August - or after the Belgian GP, the third of six sprint race weekends in 2023 - it has allowed itself to make temporary tweaks to the rules regarding driver penalties, the weekend format, Parc Fermé rules, and the formation of the grid if deemed necessary. This can only be done, however, with the agreement of the FIA, F1’s commercial rights holder, and eight of the 10 teams. Furthermore, it states such changes must address “unintended issues” from the new rules, must ensure sporting fairness, and may only apply to the individual event during which the problems arose.

Interesting right?

We will see some new car developments, mostly front & rear wings, as the Baku street circuit has a very long straight and teams will be eager to reduce drag. Here is a good look at the “long straight” on a normal day.

What I love, and why I want to attend this race someday, are the picturesque scenes it provides - blending old with new.

Hope you learned something,

🏁Brent🏁

PS Neat Burger is a meat-free burger chain backed by Lewis Hamilton and Leo DiCaprio. The first location opened in NYC this week. Let me know how it is if you try it.